Perbandingan Weight Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Persediaan Produk Farmasi

  • Novita Sari Universitas Harapan Medan
  • Hasdiana Hasdiana Universitas Harapan Medan
  • Eka Rahayu Universitas Harapan Medan
Keywords: Forecasting, WMA, SES, Website

Abstract

Satria Pharmacy is a drug product selling business that only sells various kinds of pharmaceutical products. Pharmacies Satria often have difficulty in predicting future product inventories based on previously recorded data. Forecasting is very influential on the decision of the pharmacy owner to determine the number of pharmaceutical products that must be provided by the pharmacy. In developing this forecasting system, the writer uses the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) forecasting methods. The purpose of this study is to apply the Weight Moving Everage (WMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods to determine the accuracy of the Weight Moving Average (WMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods with the MSE technique. The results of this study are a website-based system that can forecast and produce value comparisons between the Weight Moving Everage and Single Exponential Smoothing methods where in the overall calculation of the error value with Mean Square Error (MSE) there are 54,95 for the WMA method and for the WMA method. SES has a value of 40,79, with that the SES method as a whole predicts better than the WMA method

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Z. Silvya, A. Zakir, D. Irwan, P. Studi, S. Informasi, and U. H. Medan, “PENERAPAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN,” vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 59–64, 2020.
[2] E. Agustina, “SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PREDIKSI JUMLAH STOK BARANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE,” vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 18–23, 2021.
[3] C. A. Suhendra, M. Asfi, W. J. Lestari, and I. Syafrinal, “Sistem Peramalan Persediaan Sparepart Menggunakan Metode Weight Moving Average dan Reorder Point Forecasting System for Spare Parts Inventory Using the Weight Moving Average and Reorder Point Methods,” vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 343–354, 2021, doi: 10.30812/matrik.v20i2.1052
[4] I. Solikin et al., “Aplikasi Forecasting Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average ( WMA ) pada Metrojaya Komputer,” vol. 04, no. 02, pp. 100–105, 2019, doi: 10.30591/jpit.v4i2.1373.
[5] R. Y. Hayuningtyas and T. Informatika, “PERAMALAN PERSEDIAAN BARANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL,” vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 217–222, 2017.
[6] F. Reba, A. Sroyer, S. M. Yokhu, and A. Langowuyo, “Perbandingan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing Angka Partisipasi Sekolah Wilayah Adat , Papua,” vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 161–168, 2021, doi: 10.31851/sainmatika.v18i2.6617.
[7] P. Studi, T. Informatika, and S. S. Indonesia, BARANG MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE," pp. 71–79.
[8] M. A. Maricar, “Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ,” vol. 13, no.2, pp. 36–45
[9] M. Latif and R. Herdiansyah, “Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 137–142, 2022, doi: 10.47065/josh.v3i2.1232.
[10] R. Boltzmann, M. Rbm, and N. Network, “Pada Jaringan Saraf Restricted Boltzmann Machines ( RBM ) Analysis of The Influence Activation Function , Learning Rate And Momentum in Determining Mean Square Error ( MSE ) in,” vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 77–91, 2019.
[11] J. T Informatika, M. Weighted, M, Average, W. M. A. Pada and T. Barang, "Jurnal Teknik Informatika, Vol. 13, no. 3, Agustus 2021," vol. 13, no. 3, pp.1-9, 2021.
[12] N. Hudaningsih et al., “PERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PRODUK AKNIL PT . SUNTHI SEPURIMENGGUANAKAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTING,” vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 15–22, 2020
[13] H. Basri, R. E. Indrajit, S. Magister, I. Komputer, and N. M. Jakarta, “IMPLEMENTASI INFORMATION RETRIVALS UNTUK MENINGKATKAN,” vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 249–254, 2017.
[14] S. Kusuma, C. Suhery, and R. Hidayati, “IMPLEMENTASI METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE PADA SISTEM PREDIKSI STOK TEMBAKAU LOKAL BERBASIS WEB ( STUDI KASUS OUTLET PROGRESSIVE NICOTIANA ),” vol. 09, no. 03, 2021.
[15] P. Penjualan, B. Kopi, D. I Pt, and X.X.X. Dengan, " Peramalan penjualan bubuk kopi di pt. xxx dengan penerapan metode wma dan exponential smoothing," vol.2, no. 2, 2021.
Published
2022-09-30